2023: Presidential candidate with highest rating revealed as another poll emerges
Just few days to the 2023 presidential election slated for Saturday, February 25, the result of the latest opinion poll, perhaps the last this season, has indicated that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), is rated the highest among the leading presidential hopefuls.
In the survey done by Freddan Services on the coming presidential election, a total of 370,000 questionnaires were sent out and 287,033 responses (representing 3% across 36 states) were received.
From the responses, Bola Tinubu received 106,764 votes; Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), 92,127 votes; Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 88,109 votes, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (PDP), 693 votes.
Current voting intention, according to the poll, shows that the APC enjoys 37% votes; the LP, 27%; the PDP, 24%; NNPP, 6%; Don’t know/ refused, 5%; others, 1%.
Going by the report, Tinubu is expected to win the February 25 presidential election on account of the overwhelming support he enjoys in his home region, the South-West, when party support from other zones are added.
According to Freddan Services, the report is the outcome of an eight-week opinion poll conducted by a team of data analysts.
The survey rated Asiwaju Bola Tinubu higher than any other candidate using four key variables: political geography, religion, resources, and class.
The poll was conducted via a combination of online and phone surveys.
The online surveys were administered through a secure web platform, and phone surveys conducted by trained staff who are proficient in the three major Nigerian languages of Igbo, Hausa, and Yoruba.
In both cases, the surveys were designed to ensure that the results were accurate and unbiased.
The surveys also focused on areas such as the spread of the political parties, the incumbency factors in states, religion, and the personality of the candidates.
The survey analysts also identified the role of social media influencers, religious leaders, professional organisations, the young population of voters, and how it can impact on the victory of each of the leading candidates.
Of note is that the opinion poll acknowledged the reports of various opinion polls that have put other candidates as likely winner of the February 25 election.
But it also argued that data alone does not speak for itself significantly when such data is based on manipulation and sectional polling.
It noted: “The result of every data must be put into context, including understanding the people, culture, pattern, geographical spread of the platform, and historical antecedents.
“We also identify in the course of our online poll, the role of social media influencers, religious leaders, professional organisations, and the young population of voters and how it can impact on the victory of each of the leading candidates.”
Tinubu’s projected victory is premised on the fact that, coming from a region with the second largest voting population in the country, he enjoys the widest home support from his geopolitical zone “where even political influencers in the major opposition political party are routing for his victory at the poll”.
Recent opinion polls have variously picked the LP candidate, Peter Obi, or the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, but the reports have been greeted with either cynicism or outright rejection.
An ANAP Foundation poll published in the second week of February and conducted by NOI Polls Limited (NOIPolls), saw candidate of LP, Peter Obi, leading the pack of the front liners
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