Economist Intelligence Unit predicts candidate that will win 2023 Presidential election
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has tipped the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, to win the 2023 presidential election.
The EIU, which stated this in a new country report released recently, had in 2019 predicted that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win that year’s election.
But in its latest report ahead of the next year’s presidential election, the EIU said the chances of Atiku in winning the poll would be significantly affected by the current internal wrangling in the PDP and the growing popularity of Peter Obi, the candidate of Labour Party (LP), in the South-East, which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP.
Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, defeated several APC leaders to emerge the party’s presidential candidate in May.
Most of his opponents stepped down for him just before the commencement of the primary election, while other aspirants including Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo went ahead to test their popularity with Tinubu, but lost.
However, in recent months, Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State and a fellow Muslim, as his running mate has continued to generate controversy in the APC and across the country ahead of next year’s election.
But the EIU said it does not appear that the same-faith ticket would affect the chances of Tinubu in the presidential election.
“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances,” it said.
“Atiku has more cause to worry. Not only is Obi eating into the PDP’s South-eastern support base, but Governor Wike, who finished second in the primary, does not appear to be interested in endorsing him,” the EIU said.
The crisis rocking the PDP took a turn for the worse on Wednesday as Wike’s camp pulled out of the campaign council of Atiku.
The report said with the amendment of the Electoral Act to accommodate electronic transmission of result, the role of the establishment in influencing outcome of the presidential election would diminish significantly, leading to the most fairest and credible polls since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
The report added that despite the presence of three major political gladiators from the three major ethnic groups in the country in the presidential race, the amendment of the Electoral Act would bring less disputes about the presidential election result.